October 02 2026

Mortgage demand shocked no one by declining last week as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6% drop in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 25. Both sides of the market moved lower, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% and refinance applications dropping 9% . MBA said purchase and refinance activity both reached their slowest weekly pace since 2025 . Refinances always get hit hardest by rate spikes with the index now 56% lower than a year earlier. Government refinance applications fell 13% from the prior week. "Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He noted that the 30-year fixed rate reached 7.30%, its highest level since November 2023. There was another sign that some borrowers are looking for alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. ARM loans accounted for 10.3% of all applications, the highest share since October 2025. Kan said ARM rates were roughly 80 basis points below fixed rates, although the average 5/1 ARM rate also moved higher in the latest survey. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.30% (from 7.12%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.73) 15yr Fixed: 6.56% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.02 (from 1.15) Jumbo 30yr: 7.27% (from 7.15%) | Points: 0.50 (from 0.53) FHA: 6.97% (from 6.78%) | Points: 1.18 (from 0.96) 5/1 ARM: 6.47% (from 6.10%) | Points: 1.20 (from 0.76)

October 02 2026

Home prices picked up a little more speed in July, as both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed stronger annual appreciation than in their previous readings. The gains remain relatively modest by historical standards, and while nominal prices are still moving higher nationally, the picture looks considerably less impressive after accounting for inflation. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from June to July, bringing the annual increase to 2.6% . While the national market is still technically appreciating, there's more and more variation between different metro areas with some holding steady or even contracting. Case-Shiller tells a similar story, though its national measure is running at a somewhat slower pace. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.9% year over year in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite increased 3.4% , while the 20-City Composite was up 2.5% . The annual price appreciation chart shows a nice little uptick, but the takeaway is tempered in inflation-adjusted terms. Both of the big U.S. inflation reports showed annual changes of 3.4% last month, and even higher in July (the month that lines up with these home price reports). Any way you slice it, that means home prices aren't keeping pace with broader inflation. Whether or not that's a bad thing is another story. Some would say it wouldn't be the end of the world for prices to merely hold steady and allow income growth to slowly chip away at affordability. 

September 25 2026

The new home market returned to the longer-term range last month, with sales seeing their 4th biggest rebound in 4 years.  Sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July's revised 643,000 but 2.0% below the same month last year. The increase puts sales back above the 600,000 mark after July's pullback, although the broader trend remains relatively flat. The number of new houses for sale was virtually unchanged at 483,000 , down 2.0% from a year earlier. With sales picking up while inventory held steady, the implied supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.0 months in July and essentially unchanged from August 2025. Pricing was mixed, the median sales price edged up to $393,700 , a 0.4% increase from July but 5.8% below August 2025. The average sales price fell to $478,700 , down 9.1% from July and 8.8% from a year earlier. As a reminder, price movements in this data set are not necessarily apples to apples as they don't adjust for changes in square footage, neighborhood, etc. Sales (MoM): +6.4% Sales (YoY): -2.0% Inventory (MoM): 0.0% Inventory (YoY): -2.0% Months' Supply: 8.5 (down from 9.0 prior month; 8.5 YoY) Median Price: $393,700 Average Price: $478,700